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Lunchtime seminar: Statistical analysis of the National Referral Mechanism

Online event launching briefings on statistical analysis of the National Referral Mechanism including analysis of reasons for negative conclusive grounds decisions, and reconsiderations of negative decisions

Published: 26th November 2025

Lunchtime seminar launching briefings on statistical analysis of the National Referral Mechanism including analysis of reasons for negative conclusive grounds decisions, and reconsiderations of negative decisions. 

Thursday 11th December, 12pm-12.45pm

Presentation: Dr Patrick Burland, IOM UK (lead report author)

Since the beginning of 2023, record numbers of people (both in absolute and percentage terms) have received negative decisions from the UK’s National Referral Mechanism (NRM). This has been followed by an increase in the number of negative decisions being reconsidered. This is some of the background for the statistical analysis of NRM data by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) for three briefings published by the Modern Slavery PEC at the University of Oxford.


Focusing on the key findings and recommendations from the first two briefings from the series, the seminar - led by Dr Patrick Burland, the project lead - will cover how quantitative NRM data can demonstrate the significance of policy changes to how Conclusive Grounds decisions are made, to try to contextualise the sudden large increase in negative Conclusive Grounds decisions. It will also discuss changes in policy that have limited the possibility for specific cohorts of people to submit reconsideration requests for negative decisions.


The findings and recommendations that will be discussed are highly pertinent to the ongoing work to reform the NRM, changes to the Modern Slavery Act Statutory Guidance and review of the Modern Slavery Act.   

Modern Slavery PEC lunchtime seminar series

At the Modern Slavery PEC we believe in increasing the understanding of modern slavery, particularly through promoting the latest relevant evidence in a way that is accessible to everyone.

This is why we have started a series of monthly lunchtime seminars, at which modern slavery researchers can share their latest findings with a diverse audience - everyone is welcome! The format is deliberately accessible and concise: no more than 15 minutes to present, followed by questions and discussion. Each seminar will last no longer than 45 minutes (unless there are lots of questions), which we hope will fit nicely into your lunch break.

We’ll be asking researchers who present to explain their findings in plain language that non-experts can easily understand, focusing on the real-world implications of their work and potential for impact on policy or practice, and, above all, on people and communities affected by modern slavery.

The seminars are open to anyone to join – you don’t have to be a researcher yourself. We encourage everyone interested to come along.

For those who can't make it, we will record the presentations and publish them on our YouTube channel and as short podcasts.