Geographic patterns of exploitation and referrals to the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) in the UK

Briefing three - Geographic patterns of exploitation and referrals to the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) in the UK.

This briefing was commissioned by the Modern Slavery and Human Rights Policy and Evidence Centre (Modern Slavery PEC), part of the University of Oxford and funded by the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC). It is the third in a three-part series based on quantitative analysis of the UK National Referral Mechanism (NRM) dataset, led by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) UK. The briefings are focused on improving understanding of referrals and decision-making. 

Background  

Modern slavery remains a persistent challenge in the UK, with significant variation in how and where victims are identified, referred, and supported. This briefing examines geographic and demographic patterns recorded in the UK’s National Referral Mechanism (NRM) between 2014 and 2025 to better understand how exploitation and referral trends differ across the country. The NRM is the UK’s system for formally identifying and supporting victims of modern slavery.

The briefing analyses differences in victim profiles, exploitation types, and referral practices across counties and regions of the UK. It highlights key findings and emerging trends, including counties with the highest numbers of child victims, adult male and female victims, and the prevalence of county lines exploitation. Drawing on these findings, the report concludes with evidence-based recommendations for policy, practice, and future research.

Key Findings  

1. Analysis of the NRM data reveals substantial geographic and demographic variation in patterns of human trafficking across the UK, with referral volumes having increased significantly over the past five years.
2. Men and boys now make up a growing proportion of identified victims, overtaking women and girls.  
3. British nationals, particularly children, account for an increasing share of referrals, although foreign nationals remain the largest group overall.
4. Geographic disparities in referrals are concentrated in inland and urban counties, while coastal and rural areas remain significant for particular victim profiles and forms of exploitation.
5. Border regions and counties with major transportation hubs display distinct exploitation and referral patterns.  
6. Border and rural counties are more likely to involve British nationals and children, while urban and hub counties are more likely to involve adult and foreign national victims.  
7. Exploitation patterns also vary geographically, with criminal exploitation concentrated in specific counties while labour and sexual exploitation are increasingly identified in others.  
8. County lines exploitation is most prevalent among British boys, particularly in rural and border counties.  
9. The findings highlight the importance of understanding the wider contextual drivers of exploitation and identification practices, including conflict dynamics, organised crime activity, migration pathways, and local referral systems.  

Key Recommendations  

Further research and analysis  

• Research could be conducted to better understand the factors for gendered patterns of referrals to the UK NRM.
• Further research and analysis could be conducted to better understand how institutional mandates and operational practices shape referral pathways across exploitation types and locations.
• Further analysis could be conducted to better understand the factors that may help to explain the reasons that the locations of referral and exploitation do and do not align.
• Future prevalence estimations on the scale of modern slavery in the UK should consider the significant variations in referrals across the United Kingdom and should avoid relying on extrapolations from specific areas.

NRM data collection and publication  

• The Home Office should consider collecting and publishing data on NRM referrals in a way that can show referrals which experienced exploitation both as a child and as an adult. It should also consider providing more granular data on the age of exploitation (as it does for age at referral).
• The Home Office should consider developing systematic data collection on alleged traffickers’ profiles for NRM referrals (e.g., nationality, gender, relationship to the victims).

Strengthening survivor identification and prevention approaches  

• Government-led and non-governmental public awareness raising campaigns should seek to design and deliver these in ways that best reflect the identified geographic and demographic patterns of referrals.
• The National Crime Agency, police forces, Home Office, regional Mayors and other relevant stakeholders should consider exploring how data on NRM referrals-per-population ratios can inform funding allocation for policing human trafficking.
• Data on geographical referrals and locations of exploitation could be used to help to understand the impacts of localised counter-trafficking activities such as multi-agency anti-trafficking partnerships, policing operations and other initiatives.
• The Home Office should consider introducing further guidance for decision-makers on gathering and assessing information on cases reporting exploitation exclusively outside of the UK.